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Maryland Housing 2026

After Sitting With the Numbers

By Bob Heim
Bob the REALTOR MD

Research Source: William R. McCain, MBA, MAI – Delmarva Outlook 2026

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Every year I read through W.R. McCain’s Outlook slowly.

Not just the charts. Not just the percentages.
But the tone behind the numbers.

After digesting the 2026 report, one phrase kept surfacing for me:

Not “The New Norm.”

But something else.

The Old Normal.

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What Was Forecast… and What Actually Happened

The 2025 outlook projected:

• Modest appreciation
• Slightly improving inventory
• A cooling seller’s market
• Mortgage rates easing just a bit

No crash. No frenzy. Just stabilization.

Looking at the actual 2025 numbers for Maryland’s Eastern Shore (page 54), that’s largely what occurred.

Wicomico up 6.1%.
Somerset up 9.4%.
Worcester up 1%.

But sales volume softened in several counties.
Days on Market increased (page 58).
Negotiation returned.
Discounts reappeared.

The frenzy faded.

Not because the market failed — but because it recalibrated.

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The Assessments Tell the Same Story

Residential reassessments statewide (page 45):

• 2023: +23%
• 2024: +20%
• Latest cycle: +13%

Still rising — but no longer surging.

That feels familiar.

That feels like how it used to be before historically low rates distorted everything.

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The Structural Reality Remains

Maryland still faces:

• A 96,000-home shortage
• A projected need for 590,000 new housing units by 2045
• Highly restrictive zoning
• A large percentage of cost-burdened households

Those aren’t short-term fluctuations.
They’re long-term challenges.

And they continue to shape pricing and availability.

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Alignment With National Economists

When you step back and compare McCain’s conclusions with national economists — Fannie Mae, NAR, Federal Reserve commentary — the alignment is striking.

• Forecasted 2–4% appreciation? Yes.
• Mortgage rates hovering near 6%? Yes.
• Inventory slowly increasing? Yes.
• Shift toward a balanced market? Yes.
• Affordability as the dominant issue? Absolutely.

McCain reframes the three drivers of value as:

Affordability
Mortgage Rates
Location

That matches national economic consensus almost point for point.

There’s no dramatic divergence between local and national outlook. Maryland is not operating in isolation.

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So What Is 2026?

It’s not “OK.”

It’s not booming.

It’s not collapsing.

It feels like I remember the market feeling before 2020.

Homes take time to sell.
Pricing matters.
Condition matters.
Buyers negotiate.
Sellers adjust.

Under $350,000 homes may still see stronger demand.
Higher price points may experience more pressure.

That’s not instability.

That’s equilibrium.

That’s the Old Normal.

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Final Reflection

The last few years were abnormal.

Ultra-low interest rates.
Bidding wars.
Rapid double-digit appreciation.
Sellers dictating every term.

That was the outlier.

What we’re seeing now is a return to discipline.

A return to measured expectations.

A return to fundamentals.

People still move for the same reasons they always have — job changes, retirement, inheritance, family, quality of life. Especially here on the Eastern Shore.

The difference now?

The market requires strategy again.

And honestly… that’s how I remember it.

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If you’d like to discuss how this “Old Normal” affects your property or buying plans, I’m happy to sit down and walk through it.

—
Bob Heim
Bob the REALTOR MD

Research credit: William R. McCain, MBA, MAI – Delmarva Outlook 2026

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If you’d like, we can also create a short companion Facebook post that simply says:

“The frenzy wasn’t normal. This is.”